The OHA has released its latest COVID-19 forecast showing an expected drop in daily cases and hospitalizations through the end of September.
According to the report, the effective reproduction rate – the expected number of secondary cases generated by a single case – was estimated at 0.79 on September 1, projecting the estimated growth of new cases and hospitalizations to decline from the scenario. modeling last week.
At this level of transmission, the report estimates 280 cases per 100,000 people, an average of 830 daily cases and 41 hospitalizations for the two-week period between September 22 and October 5.
The modeling report called this projection “optimistic” because the projection was based on the lowest transmission point.
The report proposed an alternative scenario taking into account the assumptions regarding the impacts of the reopening of schools and many public events scheduled for the next month. In this scenario, new cases are estimated at 350 per 100,000 people, or an average of 1,060 daily cases and 51 hospitalizations over the same period.
Vaccination remains the most effective tool to slow the spread of COVID-19. Oregonians should wear masks in indoor public spaces and outdoors among crowds.